When a new year begins, it’s usual to do predictions about what will happen in the new year. Two weeks ago, I published here a post with a video showing predictions according to Chinese Horoscope.
In this post, new predictions, but focused in a very different way. The Economist has published an article titled “Protesting predictions. Social unrest in 2014”. In 2013, we saw important riots in Ukraine, Bulgaria, Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, Tunisia, Egypt, Turkey, … Where will protests erupt in 2014?
|La Rabia (The Rage) – photo by todosnuestrosmuertos – Creative Commons|
The study has been developed by the EIU (Economist Intelligenge Unit), an independent corporation within The Economist group. The EIU, through research and analysis, offers forecasting and advisory services to its clients, the business leaders worldwide. I’m not in the group of business leaders, but have read the article anyway. Not as occult as a horoscope or a psychic prediction, but maybe more reliable. Maybe.
Laza Kekic, in the post of The Economist, defines the social or political unrest as “developments that pose a serious threat to governments or the existing political order”. And countries are clasified in five categories, according to their risk level: Very high, High, Medium, Low and Very low risk.
Kekic explains the causes for the unrest: “Declines in income and high unemployment are not always followed by unrest. Only when economic trouble is accompanied by other elements of vulnerability is there a high risk of instability. Such factors include wide income-inequality, poor government, low levels of social provision, ethnic tensions and a history of unrest. Of particular importance in sparking unrest in recent times appears to have been an erosion of trust in governments and institutions: a crisis of democracy.”
|photo from anticapitalistes.net|
If you wish to check the risk where you live, you may watch it in the graphic of the link above, in The Economist’s article.
In the group of the winners, those with a very high risk, there are 19 countries, like Argentina, Egypt, Greece, Iraq, Lybia, Syria… In the other side, with a very low risk, are Austria, Denmark, Japan, Luxembourg, Norway and Switzerland; 6 countries from a total of 150.
Countries like USA and Germany are in the quiet low risk group. This will dissapoint to those freaks claiming that Obama is a muslim communist heading USA to a stalinist dictatorship and USA is in the edge of a civil war; but don’t lose heart, folks, surely The Economist is communist as well. Ah, and gay. (My opinion about Obama, here)
But let’s leave Freak World and come back to the planet Earth. The emerging countries, the BRICS, aren’t very good; China, Brazil and South Africa are in the high level risk, Russia and India in the medium level. That’s not weird, just shows how the current Disaster Capitalism works: the countries with the highest economic growth rate are those having the highest rate of inequality and poverty, and so social unrest.
About the place where I live, whose name I do not wish to recall, indeed we have a huge unemployment, an accelerated decline in income, wide income inequailty, a poor government, low levels of social provision, nationalist tensions, an erosion of trust in government and institutions -with a (suspected) corrupt Prime Minister and a (suspected) corrupt Royal family-, an obvious crisis of democracy and also, very important, an autistic government being determined to continue in 2014 the politics that are leading this country to a social breakdown.
|Barcelona, march 2012 – photo by Sergio Uceda – Creative Commons|
And therefore, we are… in a promising High Level Risk. And raising.